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Arain, F M (2006) Knowledge-based decision support system (kbdss) for management of variation orders for school building projects in Singapore, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Asmone, A S (2020) Development of a bayesian based design-for-maintinability decision support framework, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Attarzadeh, M (2014) Negotiation-based risk management for PPP-BOT infrastructure projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Ayodeji, A A (2008) Managing building and civil engineering project claims to reduce conflict intensity and contractors' potential to dispute, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Babatunde, O K (2013) Cross cultural management of quality performance of Chinese construction firms in Nigeria, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Bajracharya, A (2009) Implementation of innovation on construction projects: A behavioral perspective, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Cao, W (2019) Data interpretation for infrastructure system diagnosis and prognosis based on model falsification, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Chadalawada, J (2017) Data driven modelling and knowledge discovery in water resources engineering, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Chen, C (2016) Crane planning optimization for construction, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , National University of Singapore (Singapore).

Chu, L (2017) Incorporation of functional considerations in highway pavement design and operations, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , National University of Singapore.

Da Silva, N A F (2015) Building certification schemes and the quality of indoor environment, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Danlei, Z (2019) The social and market outcomes of green buildings from developer and resident perspectives: The case of Singapore, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , National University of Singapore.

Dao, M A (2008) Determinants of firm compliance with environmental laws : A case study of Vietnam, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Das, S (2009) Comprehensive maintainability scoring system (COMASS) for commercial buidings in tropical climate of Singapore, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Dulung, A Z A (2007) Computer aided decision support system for the selection of subcontractors in building refurbishment works, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Ekanayake, L L (2006) Interface conflicts and regulatory decision making process on power projects in Sri Lanka, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Feng, Y (2011) Optimizing safety investments for building projects in Singapore, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Gan, C E (1998) Organizational interactions in the management of development projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Building & Real Estate, National University of Singapore.

Gao, S (2013) The toyota way model: An implementation framework for large Chinese construction firms, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Giang, D T H (2013) Developing critical capacities for the efficient use of public investments in infrastructure to support trade and economic development in Vietnam, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , National University of Singapore.

Goh, Y M (2005) A case-based reasoning approach to construction safety risk assessment, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore.

He, N (2016) Conceptual cost modeling of innovative industrial estates using sysml and case-based reasoning, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Hu, Z (2023) Personalized safety behavior management for construction workers considering cognitive factors, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Huang, Y (2008) Analysis of the supply chain design and planning issues: Models and algorithms, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Jafari, D M (2012) Resolution of multiparty construction disputes under the Singapore international arbitration legal framework, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Javed, F (2010) Integrated prioritization and optimization approach for pavement management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Jiang, H (2006) Chinese multinational construction firms in international and domestic markets: A re-examination of the eclectic paradigm, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Kamardeen, I (2007) A fuzzy knowledge-based system for premium-rating of workers' compensation insurance for construction projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Khalili, A (2013) An IFC-based framework for optimizing level of prefabrication in industrialized building systems, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Khoo, C C (1991) Cost analysis of building design for energy conservation in singapore, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Building & Real Estate, National University of Singapore.

Kumar, V (2019) Developing COBie dataset management system (CDMS) to enhance usability of building information model-facilities management information exchange standard, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , National University of Singapore.

Lavers, A P (1986) Professional negligence in the property-related professions, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Building & Real Estate, National University of Singapore.

Li, S (2010) Strategies for international construction related consultancy firms to compete in China, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Liao, L (2018) Building information modeling-based process transformation to improve productivity in the Singapore construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Lim, J N (2007) Stimulating construction innovation in Singapore by developing the national system of innovation, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Lim, K H (2006) Causal model for management of subcontractors in waste minimization, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Lim, T H B (2009) Organizational flexibility management in construction, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Lin, G (2011) Decision model for determination of adaptation potential and renewal action for public housing in Singapore, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , National University of Singapore.

Lin, S (2022) Risk analysis and management for excavation engineering via multi-criteria decision making modeling, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Ling, F Y-Y (1998) Multi-attribute decision making model for evaluation and selection of consultants for design-and-build projects in Singapore, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , National University of Singapore.

Ling, Y Y (1999) Multi-attribute decision making model for evaluation and selection of consultants for design-and-build projects in singapore, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Building & Real Estate, National University of Singapore.

Manocha, N (2018) Infrastructure investments under deep uncertainty, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , National University of Singapore (Singapore).

Mao, Z (2003) Forecasting total factor productivity growth in the construction industry using neural network modelling, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Ning, Y (2013) Boosting public construction project outcomes through relational transactions in Singapore, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Ong, J (2019) Enabling lean through using shared mental models for precast construction in Singapore, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , National University of Singapore.

Pasinu, H R (2011) Incorporating risk considerations in airport runway pavement maintenance management, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Peh, L C (2010) Relationship between flight-time and organization design of internationalizing architectural and engineering (a&e) consultancy firms, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Qui, N T (2013) Automated schedule generation and analysis from a construction requirement perspective, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Shiromani, J P A G T (2014) Conceptual framework for environmental rating systems for infrastructure projects in sri lanka: Application to small hydropower projects, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Singh, S (1987) Cost models for approximate cost estimation of structural systems in commercial high rise buildings, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Building & Real Estate, National University of Singapore.

Singhaputtangkul, N (2012) Knowledge-based decision support system quality function deployment (kbdss-qfd) tool for assessment of building envelope materials and designs in the early design stage, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Song, Y (2007) Intermediate function analysis for improving constructability, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Stein, M (2012) Decision making with implementation dependent feedback, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Supriadi, L S R (2014) Implementing business continuity management (bcm) using a knowledge based decision support system (kbdss) for indonesian contractors, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Suzuki, K (2017) The impact of national culture on communication management - japanese contractors in singapore construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Suzuki, K (2018) The impact of national culture on communication management: Japanese contractors in Singapore construction industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, , National University of Singapore.

Tan, J Y (2005) Coordinated budget allocation in multi-district highway agencies, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Tjandra, I K (2004) Organisational learning in construction: The case of construction firms in jakarta, Indonesia, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Toor, S-U-R (2009) Authentic leadership development and influence in the construction industry of Singapore, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Wu, M (2005) Modelling just-in-time purchasing in the ready mixed concrete industry, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Wu, P (2011) Application of the lean philosophy to reduce carbon emissions in the precast concrete industry of Singapore, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Yang, Y (2004) Modeling a decision support system for buildable designs, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Yeoh, K-W (2012) Construction requirements driven planning and scheduling, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Zeng, Z (2007) Coordinated rescheduling of precast production, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Zhang, J (2012) Developing a construction safety management and audit system, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Zhang, M (2011) Uncertainty and imprecision in safety assessment of offshore structures., Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore.

Zhao, X (2014) Enterprise risk management in Chinese construction firms operating overseas, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Zhong, Q (1998) Building process modelling using product modelling methodology and its application to scheduling, Unpublished PhD Thesis, School of Building & Real Estate, National University of Singapore.

Zhong, Y (2013) Decision support system for the selection of structural frame material to achieve sustainability and constructability, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Building, National University of Singapore.

Zhu, L (2015) Design of a bankable and resilient financial arrangement for PPP projects using game theory with multi-agent simulation, Unpublished PhD Thesis, Civil & Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore.

• Type: Thesis
• Keywords: private sector; procurement; game theory; financing; partnership; pricing; recession; risk management; net present value; probability; analytic hierarchy process; case study; questionnaire survey; negotiation; stakeholder; heuristic; simulation
• ISBN/ISSN:
• URL: http://scholarbank.nus.edu.sg/handle/10635/122646
• Abstract:
  Public private partnership (PPP) approach is an innovative procurement method to alleviate the shortage of infrastructure development. The financial arrangement, especially the debt arrangement, determines the success of a PPP project. Considering the real problems encountered during the financial arrangement period and the worse situation for the debt arrangement of PPP projects after the credit crisis from 2008, this dissertation attempts to help the private sector properly manage the financial arrangement risk of PPP projects, i.e., the failure of achieving a financial close, from the perspectives of bankability and crisis-resilience. For the above purpose, this dissertation provides a methodological framework for the financial arrangement risk management of PPP projects. Several models to explore the critical bankability criteria and simulate major interactions between stakeholders during the financial arrangement and loan application process are developed. A Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) - based Bankability Criteria Ranking approach is first proposed to identify the critical qualitative bankability evaluation criteria of PPP projects from the bank’s perspective. After soliciting experts’ opinions of the importance of 41 bankability criteria through a structured questionnaire survey, the top twenty most important criteria from the bank’s perspective are identified. The findings of this study also reveal the inconsistent perceptions on the importance weights of bankability criteria among different stakeholders and areas through a comparison of six sets of importance weights of bankability criteria from different stakeholders and areas. Since the bank has become the main source of debt financing after the credit cri sis and economic recession from 2008, a Loan Arrangement Signaling Game model is subsequently proposed to simulate the loan application and approval process between the private sector and the bank. The model allows a more realistic representation of the practice by incorporating the bank’s internal credit rating system, credit scoring process and the decision - making heuristics of both the private sector and the bank. With this model, a series of simulations from different perspectives is conducted. The findings reveal that different perceptions on the importance weights of the bankability criteria between the private sector and the bank can worsen debt terms. Moreover, different credit assessments can lead to the rejection of a loan application. The findings also indicate that the private sector can improve the bankability of a project through exploring more available credit support approaches (CSAs) and the proper judgment of the difference in the weighted credit score between the private sector and the bank according to different circumstances. Considering the immaturity of financial insurance market and the increasing requirements of the financial insurance products from the bank, a Double Auction Game model is then proposed to simulate the trade of financial insurance products between the private sector and the insurer and analyze the pricing of financial insurance products. Through theoretical analysis, the model first reveals that the bank’s requirements for financial insurance not only increase the occurrence of the trade but also increase the premium. In order to help the private sector identify the bank’s requirements and concurrently decrease the premium, a new risk identification and mitigation process is recommended. The model also reveals that the flourishing of the financial insurance market can eventually decrease the premium of financial insurance products. This can be spurred through establishing a good collection of financial insurance data on PPP projects which have been accumulated over the decades. All stakeholders take debt terms very seriously since debt terms greatly affect the net present value (NPV ) and internal rate of return ( IRR ) of PPP projects. However, the negotiation of debt terms is time - consuming and expensive. A debt terms’ bargaining model is proposed to simulate the negotiation process between the bank and private sector u sing bargaining game theory with time - dependent negotiation tactics coupled with a learning - based approach. With this model and a developed multi - agent system (MAS) program, a series of simulations has been conducted. The findings first reveal that the effect of the superiority of the first offerer and the negotiation tactics are very obvious. The use of the negotiation tactics and learning ability can quickly finalize the negotiation, which improves the solution to the negotiation inefficiency problem. The findings subsequently indicate that the sponsor can obtain a better payoff with a higher bargaining power. The findings finally point out that the sponsor can adopt the strategy of a short response time to generally achieve a better outcome when his bargaining power is relatively high. However, there is a trade - off between the payoff advantage and a faster negotiation finalization when his bargaining power is relatively low. This implies that the private sector needs to sacrifice some payoff to successfully conclude the negotiations when his bargaining power is relatively low, especially in a tight financial close deadline. In order to captures the oscillatory behavior of relevant stakeholders in the interactions between them and their adaptions to environment conditions, a MAS program, which incorporates the proposed models in a single environment and adopts the resilience concept, is developed to simulate the whole complex and dynamic financial arrangement process. A real case study is conducted to investigate the response capability of a financial arrangement under external disruptions. The findings indicate that bankability is a ‘state’ that depends on the financial structure, financial arrangements and external environment. Under serious external disruptions, the private sector can increase the opportunity to achieve a financial close through exploring more available CSAs. More available CSAs can also decrease the duration of a financial close and increase the recoverability of a financial arrangement under external disruptions. The findings further reveal that the private sector’s proper judgment on the difference in weighted credit score also greatly affects the success of a financial close and equity internal rate of return (EIRR) of a project. To achieve the optimal outcome, the private sector needs to make a balance between the probability of a successful financial close and the cost of CSAs.