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Chen Y E, Ahiaga-Dagbui, D, Thaheem, M and Shrestha, A (2022) Optimism Bias in Transport Project Cost Appraisal: A Review of the Current Body of Knowledge. In: Tutesigensi, A and Neilson, C J (Eds.), Proceedings 38th Annual ARCOM Conference, 5-7 September 2022, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, UK. Association of Researchers in Construction Management, 349-358.
- Type: Conference Proceedings
- Keywords: optimism bias, transport infrastructure project, behavioural decision making, cost underestimation, systematic review
- ISBN/ISSN: 978-0-9955463-6-3
- URL: http://www.arcom.ac.uk/-docs/proceedings/61767df010acabf3de54bf296d6625f9.pdf
- Abstract:
<p>Optimism bias has been considered an important cause of cost underestimation in transport infrastructure project appraisal in recent project management literature. However, little research has critically examined the current understanding of the nature, dynamics, and impact of this cognitive bias in the context of transport cost appraisal. This systematic review provides a timely assessment of the extant journal articles in this research area. The findings of this review suggest that the presence and nature of optimism bias in the organisational setting of transport project cost appraisal are understudied. The phenomenon needs to be validated in the project planning phases. The interactions between optimism bias and other cognitive biases as well as their synergetic impacts on transport project appraisal, also require further investigations. The nuanced relationship between political pressure and optimism bias in the complex institutional environment in which transport project cost estimating is conducted should be carefully dissected.</p>